The 2020 Election: Forecasts from Three Classic Models

Session Submission Type: Created Panel

Session Description

Forecasting U.S. presidential elections has a long history. This session will feature three classic models for forecasting the presidential popular vote, all of which have been around at least since the 1992 election, or longer. In addition, session chair and discussant Bill Mayer will provide a review of the historical performance of these and other traditional models.

Sub Unit

• Related Groups / Political Forecasting Group

Cosponsor

• Theme Panel

Individual Presentations

• Forecasting the 2020 Presidential Election with the Time for Change Model - Alan I. Abramowitz, Emory University

• Forecasting the Presidential Vote with Leading Economic Indicators and Polls - Robert S. Erikson, Columbia University; Christopher Wlezien, University of Texas at Austin

• The Keys to the White House: Forecast for 2020 - Allan J. Lichtman, American University

Chair

• Mary Stegmaier University of Missouri

Discussant

• William G. Mayer Northeastern University