The Illusion of Affective Polarization

• In Event: Political Polarization and the American Public: Fact or Fiction?

Abstract

Deep levels of affective polarization—the tendency of ordinary partisans to dislike and distrust those from the other party—is a defining feature of contemporary American politics. Or is it? We argue that it may in fact be more of an illusion, both in the minds of citizens and scholars. Specifically, canonical measures of affective polarization dramatically overstate its extent. When asked to rate their feelings toward “Democrats” or “Republicans,” respondents draw on stereotypes and media exemplars that suggest citizens are ideologically extreme and politically engaged. Using data from an experiment where we randomly vary the ideological extremity and political engagement of out-partisans, we show that partisan animus falls sharply when respondents evaluate those who are less engaged or ideologically moderate—that is, those who actually comprise most of the electorate. We show that prior results stem from citizens’ vast misperceptions of out-partisans. Our results accentuate the importance of careful measurement and, more significantly, the reality that partisans do not hold deep animus for most members of the other party. These findings, however, also complicate conceptions of “good citizenship” that often call for ideological constraint and engagement.

Authors

• James N. Druckman, Northwestern University

• Samara Klar, University of Arizona

• Yanna Krupnikov, Stony Brook University

• Matthew S. Levendusky, University of Pennsylvania

• John Barry Ryan, Stony Brook University