Democratic Discord and the Rise of the Populist Right in Western Europe

• In Event: Protest Mobilization and Policy Performance in Europe

Abstract

The rise of the populist right in western Europe is generally explained with reference to rising levels of immigration, or socio-economic concerns, or other reasons why voters favor populist politicians—“demand side” factors, focusing on the demand for populism among voters. In developing countries, however, the rise of the populist right is often explained as the outcome of efforts by populist politicians to divide and polarize voters as an electoral strategy—“supply side” factors. I label the phenomenon of democratic politicians mobilizing and exacerbating societal conflict to win votes “democratic discord.” This article shows that democratic discord is part of the explanation for the rise of the populist right in western Europe. First, I demonstrate the concept of democratic discord with a pooled time series analysis showing that election years see greater polarization than non-election years in a range of European countries. Second, I analytically untangle the question of whether politicians follow voters, or voters follow politicians, by using a regression discontinuity design on British Election Study data on the period immediately before and after the U.K. General Election of 2015. This was the first election in the U.K. under the Fixed Terms Parliament Act, which stipulates that elections will be held at regular periods, rather than called by the incumbent party at favorable moments. It can thus plausibly be seen as an exogenous event that does not depend on the social conditions of the time. The analysis shows that the salience of the issue of Europe is significantly higher in the days after than in the days just before the election. I argue that the election results legitimized a grievance among the British public that would otherwise have remained dormant. The implication is that Brexit—to date the most important consequence of the rise of populism in western Europe--was not a response to grassroots concerns over European immigration, as is the orthodox interpretation, but rather an outcome that was at least in part driven by the process of electoral democracy itself. This in turn suggests that rising immigration levels are not destined to create conflict; it is political mobilization of the grievance over immigration that matters.

Author

• Monica Prasad, Northwestern University