Brexit and Immigration Controllability

• In Event: Social Identity and Beliefs on Welfare and Immigration

Abstract

Taking back national sovereignty and control over immigration was the most salient narrative in the winning Leave campaign for the Brexit referendum. However, what did “regaining control” really mean for voters? Many Remainers have claimed that it masked old-fashioned, anti-immigrant sentiments, which would get even stronger if the Brexiters win. Others have taken the control message as a synonym for curtailing immigration, suggesting that Brexit would reduce public opposition to immigration only given a decrease in immigration levels. Instead, I theorize that the struggle for more control was a genuine and separate aspiration for most Leavers. As their explicit claims, their implicit psychological attributes—locus of control, political efficacy and trust—indeed indicated a lack of control. Utilizing panel data and an interrupted time-series design, I show that Brexit significantly reduced opposition to immigration and support for UKIP, while it increased political efficacy and trust. The findings suggest that regulating—but not necessarily curtailing—immigration can mitigate public backlash.

Author

• Omer Solodoch, University of Pennsylvania