Gangs, Governors & Godfathers: The Organization of Election Violence in Nigeria

• In Event: The Subnational Politics of Election Violence

Abstract

Recent studies of election violence reveal the national-level factors that increase a country’s risk for violent elections, including economic malaise, institutional weakness and design, and electoral uncertainty. Less robust however is our understanding of the subnational politics of election violence. This gap in the literature becomes especially glaring once we take into account that election violence does not engulf an entire country, but rather, is concentrated and tends to repeat itself in specific localities. The paper contributes to a rapidly expanding research agenda on election violence with a subnational study of how politicians and local gangs jointly organize and produce election violence in Nigeria. I show that election violence is driven by two factors: (1) elite rivalry, often referred to as “godfather politics” in Nigeria, and (2) leadership rivalry within local gangs. Competition between governors and “godfathers” creates the demand for election violence. Governors and their former patrons- godfathers- turn to local gangs to carry out election violence on their behalf. Local gangs divided by leadership struggles serve as the supply. In exchange for money and weapons to try to weaken or eliminate their rivals, gang leaders agree to carry out election violence for their political backers. In turn, as godfathers, governors, and gang leaders struggle for their political survival, they ally with one another to organize and carry out election violence. Most-similar and most-different cases illustrate the argument: the Bakassi Boys in Anambra State, the Ijaw Youth Council in Rivers State, and the National Union of Road Transport Workers in Oyo State. The findings advance our understanding of the subnational politics of election violence as well as how and why different non-state armed groups get involved in election violence.

Author

• Megan Turnbull, University of Georgia