Crisis Candidacies: Party Decline & Rise of Black/Asian Party Leaders in the West

• In Event: Poster Session: Race, Ethnicity, and Politics

Abstract

Why are African, Asian, Arab, and Latino-descent minorities increasingly running for and winning party leadership during an era of rising anti-immigration and ethnocentric attitudes and far-right success given their critical role in winning and losing votes? The growing literature on non-Western ethnic minority political inclusion overlooks this new phase in nearly a quarter of Western states in parties across the ideological spectrum. Contrary to current theories about electing ethnic candidates to the national or local legislatures, the candidacies and election of ethnic party leaders depend less on ethnic population size, ethnocentrism and anti-immigration attitudes, ideology, or history of electing ethnic candidates and more on emerging party crises. Unlike the nomination of ethnic MPs, deputies, and councilors, the leadership contests and candidacies are influenced by the rising competition for voters who are not anti-immigration and ethnocentric voters overlooked in the literature. It is the destabilization of political parties by the rise of far-right parties that open up opportunities for ethnic minority leadership candidates.

Where parties suffer historic losses often due to far-right success or other internal strife, Blacks and Asians are far more likely to run for and win leadership contests. When parties are not suffering historic losses, ethnic minorities often withdraw before the first vote is cast despite publicly expressed interest. Their candidacies for and election to the leadership are accelerated by intra-country, neighboring country, and small-to-large party contagion if the previously elected ethnic party leaders reverse their party’s fortunes. Anti-contagion can occur if previously elected fail to succeed making far less likely minorities will run and win. Using an original database (1990 to 2019) of leadership candidates, internal party rules, party finances, and election results, this paper links the opportunities for non-Western ethnic minorities to become party leaders in the West to severe electoral, financial, or internal party crises, far-right party success, interparty contagion, and competition for voters with weak anti-immigration attitudes using quantitative and qualitative analysis of twenty Western countries in Europe, Oceania, and North America.

Author

• Kimberly L. Shella, Southern Illinois University Carbondale