Rebel Group Engagement with Local Politics: The Role of Ideology and Opportunity

• In Event: Central and Local Actors in Conflict and Peace Processes

Abstract

Research on the formation and organization of rebel groups mostly explores their reliance on established local political structures and social networks. In reality, rebel groups engage with pre-existing local political structures in a range of ways, with some groups co-opting existing institutions and some groups transforming or replacing those institutions completely. This article uses an original dataset to build a typology of rebel organizations based on their relationship with local political hierarchies. Furthermore, it argues that rebel groups transform these hierarchies when the following two conditions are met: (1) these groups have embraced an ideology that views the overhaul of the prevailing local political structures as an imperative, and (2) wartime conditions are such that they perceive the gains to be achieved through this transformation to be higher than the costs incurred. The factors affecting these perceptions include the authority that established local elites have retained, the rebels’ beliefs regarding the probable duration of the conflict and the sources of material support they have access to. A structured comparison of the evolution of the Tigray People’s Liberation Front during the Ethiopian civil war and of the Sudan People’s Liberation Movement provides a preliminary test of the theory.

Author

• Marine Gassier