Defense Spending and Party Identification: What the 2016 ANES Predicted

• In Event: Poster Session: International Security I

Abstract

This paper examines how the relationship between defense spending and political identification as evidenced by public opinion survey data contained in the 2016 American National Election Study available through the Survey Documentation and Analysis application hosted by the University of California, Berkeley. This study reaffirms the important relationship between public opinion and the domestic politics of defense spending in the United States. While it has been well established that there is a relationship between defense spending and party identification, this research contributes additional insight by performing a regression analysis on numerous variables which may be associated with the relationship. First, this paper confirms the relationship between defense spending and party identification using a bivariate analysis. Second, this paper examines the influence of numerous variables on the relationship between defense spending and party identification through a multivariate regression. Finally, the implications of the regression are discussed in the context of existing research as it relates to various defense spending and domestic political issues. The regression considers political ideology, race, education level, previous service on active duty, age, employment status, labor union membership, country of birth, community membership, and home ownership status. The bivariate analysis confirms the relationship between defense spending and party identification; however, it should be noted that democratic supporters tended to want to keep spending at current levels and republican supporters tended to want to increase spending levels (as opposed to one group supporting a reduction in spending while the other supported an increase to spending). In other words, supporters within both parties wanted to keep spending, and only differed in how much they wanted to keep spending by. Furthermore, the regression shows that political ideology is a much stronger predictor of attitudes toward defense spending than party identification. In conclusion, this research casts doubt about the usefulness of using political identity when examining defense spending related issues. Furthermore, this research predicts that relative to prior years: a) to the extent that actual spending levels are associated with attitudes about spending levels, that actual defense spending levels will increased since 2016; and b) to the the extent that policymaker action reflects public opinion, as measured by actual Congressional votes, there should be an increase in defense spending support since 2016. In both cases, it was found that public opinion about defense spending accurately predicted both increases in actual defense spending levels and policymaker support for defense spending.

Key Words: defense spending, party identification, political ideology

Author: Errick S. Wernecke - Graduate Student (University of Nebraska - Omaha)

Author

• Errick Scott Wernecke, Independent Scholar