Power Transitions and Public Support for Global Cooperation

• In Event: Mass Politics of Trade Cooperation

Abstract

China's remarkable economic expansion coupled with the devaluation of America's own political and economic prestige have led many observers to portray China as an ascending superpower and the US as a declining hegemon. In this study, we ask how such power transitions affect citizens' support for international economic cooperation. Specifically, we argue that individuals from a country that experiences power decline are less likely to support cooperation and more likely to support confrontation. This is because citizens of a nation experiencing declining power are highly concerned about the future losses resulting from the loss of their hegemony status. Individuals are therefore more concerned about relative, as opposed to absolute, gains in international economic cooperation in order to maximize long-term utility. In contrast, nations that are rising in power are keen to foster global cooperation in order to credibly signal that they will not behave aggressively in the future. Accordingly, we hypothesize that individuals from an ascending power country are more likely to support global cooperation and less likely to support confrontation. Using survey experiments with nationally representative samples from China and the US, we examine how exposing citizens to information about their countries' economic and military power toward another country affect their support for global economic cooperation.

Authors

• Quynh Nguyen, Australian National University

• Thomas Sattler, University of Geneva

• Tanja Schweinberger, University of Geneva