Economic Voting in New Democracies: The Case of Indonesia

• In Event: The Common Coin and the Public Voice: Economic Preferences and Policies

Abstract

Research on economic voting consistently shows that favorable public perception of the economy tends to result in a successful reelection bid for the incumbent. While this hypothesis has ample support in advanced economies and consolidated democracies, it is often challenged when it comes to democratizing and developing countries. Low-informed voters, patron-client relationships, ill-defined economic cleavages — common features of new democracies such as Indonesia — suggest that religious and ethnic factors matter more in affecting vote choices, rather than broad performance indicators such as the economy. However, if conventional views that place identity politics above economic evaluations were entirely accurate, why do opposition politicians often make the economy the centerpiece of their campaign message, as in the 2019 presidential election Indonesia? Using an original public opinion survey ahead of the 2019 Indonesian elections, this paper addresses two questions related to the economic voting literature. First, we compare the relevance of economic voting vis-à-vis social class, partisan identification, religious tolerance and other non-economic factors that have been found to affect vote choices, including corruption perceptions. We show that favorable perceptions of the national economy is significant and positively associated with the probability of voting for the incumbent president, and in some cases, the effects are larger compared to religious factors. Second, since most voters only practice economic voting in areas that are of particular interest to them, we assess the relative importance of six different economic indicators, four domestic (unemployment, inflation, GDP growth, income inequality) and two international economic variables ( exchange rate and public foreign debt) in affecting presidential vote choice in Indonesia. Our results suggest that the two variables Indonesian voters care most about are price stability and unemployment.

Authors

• Puspa D Amri, Sonoma State University

• Florence Ghislaine Bouvet, Sonoma State University