Institutional Threat: How New Multilateral Institutions Affect Existing Ones

• In Event: Under Pressure: How International Organizations Try to Avoid Decay

Abstract

In recent years, rising powers have established new high-profile multilateral institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB) and the New Development Bank (NDB). Existing studies often regard these institutions as complementing the Bretton Woods system. However, policy-makers and pundits frequently consider these new institutions as threatening to the liberal international order. When and why should existing powers view new multilateral institutions as threats to the vitality of existing institutions instead of rising powers’ contribution to global public goods? This paper presents a theory of institutional threat, which explicates the conditions under which existing powers view new multilateral institutions as potential threats. Building on both rationalist and ontological security theories, we argue that the similarity of new multilateral institutions -- in either function or design -- with existing institutions increases the likelihood under which the existing powers would perceive a new institution as a threat to existing institutions. We illustrate our theory with a discussion of the international politics of competition between the World Bank and the AIIB.

Authors

• Ayse Kaya, Swarthmore College

• George Yin