Partisan Polarization and Fragmentation: Evidence from the 2020 Taiwan Elections

• In Event: Polarization and National Identity: The 2020 General Elections in Taiwan

Abstract

Taiwan is generally viewed as having a polarized polity with national identity being the defining issue. Yet, there are several trends that are at least somewhat inconsistent with this image. First, partisan loyalties have jumped around rapidly over the last few years: from a dramatic DPP victory in the 2016 presidential and legislative elections to a surprising KMT win in the 2018 local elections to a solid lead in the upcoming 2020 presidential election for the DPP “dream team” of Tsai Ing-wen and William Lai. Second and similarly, there has been rapid shift in how cross-Strait relations have been related to partisanship. Up until 2016, this issue generally helped the KMT; in 2016, it favored the DPP; in 2018, it probably helped the KMT; and in 2020, it appears to be a central factor in the DPP’s lead in the polls. Third, protest parties and social movements have become more important in Taiwan politics, suggesting a fragmenting of the electorate. This proposed paper will explore the implications of the 2020 elections for the fragmentation and polarization Taiwan politics. The analysis will focus upon the results of the presidential and legislative elections, the impact of the national identity issue on voting, and the success of minor parties in the elections.

Authors

• Caleb M. Clark, Auburn University

• Karl Ho, University of Texas, Dallas

• Alexander C. Tan, University of Canterbury