Domestic Consequences of Global Expansion in Rising Powers: Evidence from China

• In Event: Globalizing China: Drivers and Consequences of Authoritarian Power Projection

Abstract

Rising powers typically seek to play a larger role in international economic affairs. This paper examines the domestic political consequences of rising states’ expansive foreign economic strategies. We argue that a successful global economic expansion can pay political dividends for national leaders, in the form of increased mass public support and national pride. However, when those efforts are perceived as failures, national public opinion is likely to turn against the regime. To test this argument, we fielded three original survey experiments in China, each focusing on one component of China’s expansive foreign economic strategy: the internationalization of the renminbi; the Belt and Road Initiative; and the Asian Infrastructure and Investment Bank. Subjects either received no information about the international economic policy, or facts emphasizing either the expansion or stagnation of China’s role in the global economy. We find that information about China’s global economic expansion influences individuals’ levels of government satisfaction, national pride, optimism about China’s economic future, and beliefs about whether China is respected in the world. This evidence underscores the domestic political dividends that China’s leadership stands to gain from expanding the country’s global economic presence, but also highlights the risks attached to such a strategy.

Authors

• Daniel McDowell, Syracuse University

• David A. Steinberg, Johns Hopkins University

• Yeling Tan, University of Oregon