Strategic Ambiguity and Democratic Backsliding: US Foreign Policy Under Trump

• In Event: Foreign Policy in the Age of Trump

Abstract

How does strategic ambiguity in foreign policy and diplomatic messaging lead to democratic backsliding? Most existing scholarship suggests that strategic ambiguity leads to destructive or short-term effects on cooperation between states. Indeed, uncertain and ambiguous information can be seen one of the rational explanations of war. Contrary to the existing scholarship, I claim that strategic ambiguity can give rise to cooperation between states in long-term and constructive ways in the foreign policy of a state. However, this ambiguous foreign policy might conversely affect domestic politics, as observed in the US during the Trump administration. In this paper, I will focus on Iran, North Korea and China to observe the possible effects of the policy of strategic ambiguity on American foreign policy. I will conduct content analysis using news and diplomatic press releases, coding for positive and negative framing in order to track strategic ambiguity over time.

The Trump administration has sent mixed signals in foreign policy that make other states behave with the US in a cautious way. This leads other leaders to avoid risky actions because it is highly improbable to predict the outcome of a possible conflict with the most powerful state. So, even though it seems that the US has political disagreements with China, North Korea, and Iran, the US policy of strategic ambiguity prevents those countries from taking any actions against the US, which decreases the odds of war in the sphere of foreign policy. However, with the help of strategic ambiguity, the US creates an atmosphere that decreases the odds of war and produces a domestic rally around the flag effect at the same time. Since the leader does not send clear signals to other leaders in foreign policy, it is possible to interpret the message in totally opposite ways. As such, it is possible for the Trump administration to make use of the tension with any of these states so as to erode institutions and use its executive powers in a more comprehensive way. Also, the political tension in the foreign policy makes him get the support of citizens through the rally around the flag effect, which is a policy that populist leaders take advantage of in many states.

As a whole, we observe that although the policy of strategic ambiguity decreases the odds of war in the foreign policy, it can have negative and destructive effects on the domestic policy of a state through the rally around the flag effect and might lead to democratic backsliding, as in the case of the US during the Trump administration.

Author

• Okkes Ferhat Zabun, City University of New York, the Graduate Center