Toward an Empirical Theory of Mass Expulsion: Identifying and Measuring Cases

• In Event: Strategies of Shaping Peoples and States

Abstract

Why do governments expel? In order to answer this question, we first need to identify the full range cases to be explained. Although there is some existing data on mass expulsions, most research is confined to specific regions (particularly Europe), begins after 1945, is listed qualitatively in book annexes, and often conflates mass expulsion, ethnic cleansing, mass killing and genocide. This paper seeks to contribute to the quest for a general theory of mass expulsion through the development of an original database of mass expulsion incidents, across all regions of the world, over a one-hundred-year period from 1912-2012. It defines mass expulsion as: a state-ordered or supported compulsory removal, en masse, of an ethnic, racial, religious or national group, on the grounds of belonging to that group, without individual legal review and with no recognition of the right to return. The data is drawn from existing datasets, a detailed investigation of secondary sources, and archival research at the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees and International Committee of the Red Cross archives in Geneva. This paper presents an empirical overview of the data including information on the expelling country, region, onset, duration, number expelled, ascriptive qualities of expellees, and regime type among other attributes. Preliminary analysis indicates over 130 incidents of mass expulsion, occurring in all regions of the world, targeting tens of millions of citizens and non-citizens. Based on the data I present a taxonomy of mass expulsion motivations: fifth column, alien bourgeoisie, insurgent/retribution and xenophobic expulsions.

Author

• Meghan Garrity, University of Pennsylvania