Armed and In Office: Violence and Voting in Democratic Elections

• In Event: Elections and Violence

Abstract

Existing research investigates why political parties or their associated armed groups engage in violence in democracies. However, few studies systematically examine the effects of such violence on their own electoral base. How and why might conflict-related violence influence an armed party’s vote share? What can the effects of such violence tell us about the social bases of support for armed parties and the tradeoffs they face? Utilizing a new dataset for 101 electoral districts across six local elections during Northern Ireland’s Troubles, as well as archival, interview, and survey data, this study finds votes for armed parties are generated, in part, by violence, which signifies the presence or deepening of a security vacuum. Within-district increases in state and, in certain contexts, sectarian violence against Catholic civilians are associated with marked increases in support for Provisional Sinn Féin, the Provisional Irish Republican Army’s (PIRA’s) political party, even when controlling for changes in Catholic unemployment, inter-communal electoral competition, and levels of violence between the PIRA and the state. Vigilante attacks by the PIRA on alleged criminals also increase support for the party. In addition to demonstrating the effects of violence on voting, the paper offers additional insight into the mechanisms by which different types of conflict-related violence influence civilian attitudes toward armed groups and contributes to the civil war and rebel governance literatures.

Author

• MaryBeth E. Altier, New York University