Dropout Decisions in U.S. House Elections

• In Event: Winning the Nomination: An Examination of Campaign Strategy in Primary Elections

Abstract

This paper examines dropout decisions in congressional elections from 1980 to 2016. I draw on a new dataset of U.S. House candidates who were voted on in the primary and individuals who initiated a candidacy but were not on the ballot. First, I find that candidates with previous political experience are more likely to drop out than inexperienced candidates. I also use a regression discontinuity design (RDD) to analyze dropout patterns among those who ran for state legislative and congressional office, and the estimates indicate that previous officeholders are more likely to drop out than those who were nearly elected to lower-level office but lost. Second, I show that dropout rates have increased in recent years as the cost of running for Congress has soared. Experienced candidates are especially likely to drop out as the fundraising gap to victory widens. The findings uncover a new way in which the influx of money in American elections has discouraged potential candidates in the typical pathways to Congress from seeking office at the federal level. Dropout decisions shed important light on the various reasons why non-traditional candidates have entered in their place.

Author

• Danielle Thomsen, University of California, Irvine