Public Expectations for the Energy Transition: Evidence from Canada

• In Event: Public Opinion and Climate Change Policy

Abstract

The energy transition (or “clean energy transition”) describes an expected transformation of the global energy sector from fossil-based to zero-carbon by the second half of this century (IRENA, 2019). Responding to climate change requires rapid decarbonization of the economy. Yet for some countries like Canada, decarbonization challenges traditional models of economic and energy development; it raises the possibility of having to forego production of the country’s vast domestic reserves of oil and gas. As a result, public and elites are divided; with some advocating for an aggressive and others a more incremental approach to transition. How much support is there for transition in countries like Canada, a resource based fossil fuel producing and high energy consumption country? To what extent are public preferences for managing this transition aligned with the science concerning the remaining carbon budget and the time we have to bring emissions down? Finally, what are the factors that drive public opinion in this area and to what degree is such opinion polarized or fragmented?

We use recent (fall 2019) survey data (n=2,679) from Canada with five regional subsamples of over 500 (BC, Prairies, Ontario, Québec, Atlantic Canada) to assess public opinion concerning the energy transition. We characterize priorities for rapid versus incremental transition, but at the same time ask respondents what exactly they mean when they characterize a transition as rapid or incremental. To our knowledge this is some of the first work to actually define specifically what the public expects in terms of the actual pace of transition.

In addition, having regional subsamples which define cultural and economic areas, each with unique energy profiles, allows us to understand how the public’s experience with distinctive energy systems influences their opinion on energy transition. This is particularly important in Canada, where each region has clearly differentiated systems (BC – mixed green economy with carbon tax, Prairies – high fossil fuel dependence, Ontario – high nuclear, Québec – high hydro, and Atlantic Canada – mixed). Finally, our work analyzes a variety of potential explanations for these opinions beyond the regional energy profile. We include geography, city type, basic socio-demographics, and a variety of social-psychological scales to help understand the factors that drive opinion concerning the energy transition. We expect this research to significantly extend our understanding of the public response to the energy transition, and their expectations for what the transition will look like.

Authors

• Stephen Bird, Clarkson University

• Erick Lachapelle, Universite de Montreal