The Sources of Nuclear Platform Diversification

• In Event: Nuclear Forces, Strategy, and Deterrence

Abstract

Why do some states rapidly diversify their nuclear delivery platforms while others slowly incorporate or completely forego such capabilities? Nuclear delivery systems such as submarine-launched ballistic missiles, tactical nuclear weapons, and multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles significantly augment a state’s deterrent capacity, but states have adopted these capabilities at widely different rates. Notably, although these innovations are technologically and financially demanding, differences in resource capabilities cannot sufficiently explain the variation in the adoption of these nuclear technologies. For instance, although India allocates significant resources to defense spending and operates a robust indigenous nuclear infrastructure, it is yet to deploy a fully operational submarine-launched nuclear ballistic missile capability. This project builds upon an original dataset that measures the deployment of seven unique nuclear delivery platforms that contribute to the survivability, range, and penetrability of a state’s nuclear forces to explain variation in the diversification of nuclear delivery systems. We contribute to the growing literature on the post-proliferation behavior of nuclear weapons states by demonstrating the opportunities and constraints facing contemporary and potential proliferators and advance the debate on the determinants of nuclear force posture by emphasizing the acquisition of qualitatively different innovations, rather than highly aggregated indicators of nuclear platform diversification.

Authors

• Giles David Arceneaux, University of Colorado, Colorado Springs

• Kyungwon Suh, Syracuse University