Concurrent Elections and Support for Black Candidates in the 21st Century

• In Event: Get a Grip or Group

Abstract

Studies of the effects of racial attitudes and other factors on electoral support for black candidates in national elections are often limited by relatively small sample sizes in districts in which one or more black candidate is on the ballot. At the same time, scholars continue to debate the extent to which measures such as racial resentment scales capture attitudes primarily related to race rather than capturing (ostensibly) non-racial ideological orientations and/or policy preferences. In conjunction with the administration of the very large-N Cooperative Congressional Elections Studies, the emergence of several black nominees in U.S. Senate election contests and a black nominee for the presidency in the first two decades of the 21st century provide an opportunity to leverage concurrent elections to revisit and evaluate various theories regarding the influence of racial attitudes on political behavior. For example, if a measure of racial resentment is largely capturing non-racial considerations, it should affect the votes that a voter casts in two concurrent elections in similar ways even if a black candidate is on the ballot in one of those elections but not in another. On the other hand, if racial resentment largely captures attitudes related to race, a high level of racial resentment may be associated with voting against a black candidate in one election while not being associated with voting against an ideologically similar white candidate in a concurrent election. In this project, I analyze concurrent elections to evaluate several hypotheses regarding race and voting behavior in the early 21st century.

Author

• Matthew L. Jacobsmeier, West Virginia University