Red Flags: Assessing the Security Implications of China’s Economic Slowdown

• In Event: China's Responses to its Evolving Security Environment

Abstract

Most discussion on U.S. China policy focuses on the implications of a rising China. This paper, by contrast, considers some of the challenges that could be posed by an economically stagnating China. How would a severe and sustained economic growth slowdown affect China’s foreign policy and military modernization? Would military conflict between China and the United States become more or less likely? These questions are addressed by comparing China to past rising great powers that experienced major economic slowdowns.

Author

• Michael Beckley