Two sides of the same coin? Explaining rebel governance and terrorism

• In Event: Victimization of Civilians in Civil Wars

Abstract

How do rebel governing strategies affect rebels' use of violence? Existing research suggests that rebels who govern should be both more militarily capable and more interested in legitimacy, two factors negatively associated with the use of terrorism. The empirical record is far more mixed: nearly 55\% of rebels that govern also engage in terrorism. We argue that although rebel governance is typically associated with reduced violence against civilians, rebels may nevertheless resort to terrorism in response to extreme pressure from state counterinsurgent forces. More specifically, we argue that
governance is a political project: rebels do not simply govern to recruit, but to also transform political and social orders. When under intense duress and unable to meet state's conventional capabilities, rebels use terrorism to pressure states into concessions, while
preserving important political changes rebels achieved in areas they governed. This means that rebel governance can increase rebels' use of terrorism conditional on the threat rebels perceive in response to incumbent strategies. We examine this argument quantitatively with
data on rebel social service provision and terrorist tactics in civil conflicts from 1970-2005.

Authors

• Sara Polo, University of Essex

• Liana Eustacia Reyes, Rice University

• Megan A. Stewart, American University-SIS