Electoral Expectations and Support for Constitutional Change

• In Event: Courts, Campaigns, and Electoral Politics

Abstract

This paper applies intuitions from prospect theory to explore public support for institutional change. The main insight of prospect theory’s logic of decision under risk is that, when facing uncertainty, those in the ‘domain of gains’ will be risk avoidant, and those in the ‘domain of losses’ will be risk seeking. Conceiving of constitutional change as a potential risk, vis a vis keeping the status quo, I explore if citizens’ expectations about their party winning power in the 2020 election influences support for institutional measures such as (1) changing the electoral college, (2) altering congressional rules, and (3) holding a constitutional convention. Prospect theory might predict that those who believe their party will win the election will be resistant to change and those who believe they stand to lose the election will be more supportive of such measures. I use data from the pre-election wave of the 2020 CCES to investigate the relationship between citizens expectations and support for change.

Author

• Eileen Braman