Economic Upheaval & Radical-Right Voting: Evidence from a Regression Kink Design

• In Event: Political Economy of Populism

Abstract

How do economic transitions affect radical-right voting? We study the case of East Germany, where unemployment increased from zero to more than 20% after reunification in 1990. To identify the effect of this transition on radical-right support today, we use a regression kink design. We leverage a slope change in the relationship between birth year and the timing of labor market entry after the transition. We observe strong heterogeneity by gender: for men, delaying entry into the new labor market by one year decreases present-day support for the radical-right AfD party by one percentage point. The economic transition did not impact radical-right support among women. We argue that our findings are driven by the strong decline in occupational status East-German men experienced after reunification.

Authors

• Hanno Hilbig, Harvard University

• Sascha Riaz, Harvard University