Into the Jungle: Louisiana Statewide Candidate Entry, 1975-2019

• In Event: Comparing American Nominating Systems (Virtual)

Abstract

What affects the number and relative strength of entrants in Louisiana statewide elections, specifically under its current “jungle primary” electoral system? Long before “top-two” and “instant runoff” became the phrases du jour in state-level single-seat election reform, then-Governor Edwin Edwards pushed Louisiana’s take on the two-round system through the State Legislature after surviving two rounds of the Democratic primary and a strong Republican challenger in 1971-72. While the Pelican State’s punditry and press have speculated about the effect of the system on candidacies ever since, the academic shelves on this topic are rather sparse – and certainly lacking the analysis on the electoral system and candidacies like the one once made by V.O. Key (1949).

I contribute to filling this lacuna by tweaking the Laakso-Taagepera (1979) “effective number of parties” measure for the Louisiana context. Using official electoral results from the Louisiana Secretary of State’s office, I calculate the effective number of candidates for each statewide race since 1975 and then use a battery of controls (including whether the race is for Governor and whether the race is a special election caused by a vacancy) to discern the relative strength of relevant variables. I follow this by discussing patterns found in the results and potential extensions for future research.

Author

• Jordan Landry, Thirty North Consulting