The Decline of Local News and Primary Elections in the United States

• In Event: Comparing American Nominating Systems (Virtual)

Abstract

Local journalism has seen a steep decline in the United States since the year 2000. This paper investigates how this decline has affected competition in Congressional primary elections. Using two new measures of local news availability - newspaper circulation and newsroom employment at a district level - this paper shows how changes in the news environment affect primary competition, turnout, and the ideology of the eventual primary winner. With less local news coverage, voters are theorized to rely more heavily on incumbency cues and be less able to distinguish candidates on other dimensions such as ideology. Results show that in districts that experience larger than average decreases in local news coverage, open seat primaries become more competitive and produce more extreme nominees. In seats with incumbents, larger declines in local news coverage are associated with larger incumbency advantages and more moderate nominees as incumbents who are generally moderates face less competitive primary elections.

Author

• Mackenzie Lockhart, UC San Diego