The Effects of Armed Conflict on Inequality: The Case of Peru

• In Event: Origins and Legacies of Violence

Abstract

Scholars have extensively investigated how socio-economic factors like inequality or poverty shape conflict dynamics. Yet, although scholars caution that the experience of conflict also tends to negatively affect socio-economic outcomes, we know very little about how armed violence affects inequality. I propose that the experience of civil war can have an equalising effect but that this varies by type and intensity of violence. I argue that high-intensity exposure to indiscriminate violence increases collective action in affected areas as they seek to protect themselves. This reinforces social cohesion and provides a basis to collectively demand state funds and in the long run rebuild communities. Neighbouring areas, who experience violence at lower levels in initial stages of conflict, are more likely to be co-opted by warring actors or to flee, resulting in weaker social cohesion and less capacity to demand that grievances be addressed. This study utilises regression discontinuity to examine how intensity of indiscriminate violence against civilians affects socio-economic development at a local level. Focusing on Peru, I exploit variation in the declaration of emergency zones in the 1980s and make use of micro level data on socio-economic outcomes. Results indicate that intense exposure to indiscriminate violence increases socio-economic development and that relative to neighboring areas, these areas are socio-economically more included.

Author

• Laura Michelle Saavedra-Lux, University of Essex