Did “Never Trump” Advertising Generate Electoral Support for Biden?

• In Event: How Campaigns Shape Voters

Abstract

During the 2020 election, several “Never Trump” Republican groups campaigned against President Donald Trump and pro-Trump congressional candidates. Although post-election analysis of the ‘Never Trump’ movement by journalists suggests it was a failed campaign that did little more than stroke the egos of urban elites, there has been little systemic assessment of this messaging and its effects on voters. In this paper we conduct a content analysis of digital ads produced by the Lincoln Project, the most prominent of the “never Trump” groups. We focus specifically on the more than 150 Facebook ads produced by the Lincoln Project between January 8, 2020 (when the Lincoln Project launched) and January 5 (when the Georgia runoff election took place). We use data from the Facebook ad library to determine the scope and reach of these ads, and the geographic location of the ads to assess their electoral impact. We compare the results of the content analysis of Facebook ads, targeted to Republicans, with public opinion data to understand whether the marketing by the Lincoln Project impacted attitudes of Republicans who opted to vote against Trump in 2020.

Authors

• Amanda Wintersieck, Virginia Commonwealth University

• Alex Keena, Virginia Commonwealth University