Does Ethnicity Trump the Party? Experimental Evidence from Russia

• In Event: Parties, Pluralism, and Electoral Politics in Post-Communist Settings

Abstract

In this paper, I provide experimental evidence to demonstrate that the ethnicity of political candidates running for State Duma does not impact voters’ support for political parties in Russia’s multi-ethnic regions. This finding is true for a dominant party support, United Russia, and for support for the opposition parties. To test if ethnicity is an obstacle for party mobilization of voters in Russia’s multi-ethnic regions, I use a lab-in-the-field experimental design to study voter assessment and voter party choice (vote choice) in a vignette survey. Respondents are invited to read two speeches given by United Russia and Just Russia candidates to State Duma at hypothetical election campaigns in respondents’ regions. Experimental surveys are conducted in three regions marked by pronounced ethnic competition: Tatarstan, Buryatia, and Sakha. A United Russia candidate is always compared to a Just Russia candidate. Two elements of the survey are experimentally manipulated: the candidates’ sex and ethnicity. Respondents, first, answer several questions evaluating these candidates and their expected performance as regional representatives. Then, respondents are asked to cast their vote for these or other hypothetical candidates from parties registered in their region. The findings demonstrate the importance of ethnicity for the evaluation of candidates and their performance: co-ethnics provide a significantly higher evaluation to candidates of their own ethnicity, regardless of the party support. This finding suggests that ethnicity is an important marker for studying politics in Russia. When it gets to cast a vote, however, ethnicity loses its effect: respondents voted for candidates from the parties that they stated to support. This finding is true for United Russia and Just Russia supporters, as well as supporters of other parties, not included in the vignette. This finding confirms parties can command their supporters in Russia, regardless of the ethnicity of fielded candidates, and reveals a new mechanism for explaining the stability of the electoral support for a hegemonic party in Russia’s multi-ethnic regions.

Author

• Olga A. Avdeyeva