Winner Effects on the Contestation of Electoral Outcomes

• In Event: Politics and Public Opinion in the American West

Abstract

What actions do citizens believe are appropriate to contest electoral outcomes? We test a theory of “winner effects” where favorable election outcomes potentially diminish support for behaviors associated with contesting an election such as criticizing the election, protests, symbolic speech, ballot recounts, and litigation. Electoral losers, in contrast, potentially increase their support of such actions. Using data from the 2020 Western States Survey, we explore differences in citizen support for different modes of electoral contestation before and after the 2020 election. We find Trump (Biden) supporters are more (less) likely to support contestation behaviors the more it becomes clear their candidate lost (won) the election. We further test what individual-level factors facilitate or inhibit “winner effects” in the context of the contestation of electoral outcomes. Our findings shed light on post-2020 election politics, expand the scope of “winner effects” to new outcomes, and show potential limitations to the public’s commitment of democratic ideals.

Authors

• Juliet Carlisle, University of Utah

• Fabian Guy Neuner, Arizona State University

• Mark Daniel Ramirez, Arizona State University

• Christopher R. Weber