State Capacity for Catalyzing Energy Transitions in East Africa

• In Event: State Capacity in Comparative Lens

Abstract

Can theories of political economy of development explain the cultivation and use of technical capabilities for catalyzing energy transitions in sub-Saharan Africa? The fields of energy transitions and political economy of development emanate from different empirical and methodological traditions. But bridging research such traditions is currently recognized as a promising research strategy for investigating sustainability transitions and decarbonization (Geels et al., 2016; Turnheim et al., 2015). It is also increasingly recognized that greater attention needs to be accorded to energy transitions in developing countries (Baker et al., 2014; Hansen et al., 2018). A key area of tension between the two research traditions, however, can be found in the importance each ascribes to state and non-state actors in the transition process. With its origins in the study of energy systems in Western Europe and North America, the transitions literature has emphasized change driven from the bottom-up by non-state actors. But if there is any consensus in the literature in comparative political economy and development studies, it is that the state is a crucial partner in economic development.

We evaluate the explanatory power of the two theoretical traditions for energy transitions in East Africa through reconstruction of the recent history of modern energy production as well as analysis of results form a survey of energy policy experts about the role of energy system modeling in energy transitions. Over the course of 2020/2021, an online survey was administered to over 200 modeling and policy experts across Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya. Specifically, the survey was oriented to gauge the relative importance of development policy paradigms (sensu Hall 1997) and political settlements (Khan 2010, Kelsall 2018)—two leading theories of political economy development—as well as the role of state and non-state actors in energy transitions.

Results indicate that capacity for energy system modeling better corresponds with established theories of political economy of development pertaining to the three countries, particularly development policy paradigms. Significantly, capacity for energy system modeling was consistently found more highly concentrated amongst state and transnational actors than domestic non-state actors in all three countries. However, across countries, such technical capacity was found higher across the Ugandan and Kenyan state apparatus than Tanzania’s, though the first two are often placed at opposite ends of political settlements spectrum. Furthermore, while all three countries have seen significant gains in the production of modern energy over the past 5-10 years, Tanzania has seen an unprecedent increase in power generation linked to its natural gas reserves despite a narrowing political settlement. This prompts us to turn to development policy paradigms as a key explanatory factor—a set of ideas about economic development that permeates the state apparatus—where Tanzania’s neo-developmentalism contrasts with the liberal neo-developmentalism that characterizes Kenya and Uganda. The implication is that capacity for energy system modeling is associated with more market-based paradigms of economic development. Overall, our results question the importance of technical capacity for energy transitions. Though such technical capacity might also be supplied by transnational actors, such as transnational firms in Tanzania’s natural gas sector, it may not be a necessary condition for energy transitions. We conclude with a reflection on our findings for the “pockets of effectiveness” theoretical framework as well as the sustainability transitions literature.

Author

• Mark Purdon, Université du Québec à Montréal (UQAM)