Leader Hawkishness, Political Survival, and Interstate Conflict

• In Event: Leader-Based Approaches to International Conflict

Abstract

I argue leaders' hawkishness influences how their political prospects and interstate conflict affect one another. Domestic political processes make doves' survival relatively sensitive to the international security environment, while variation in their subjective costs of conflict and risk profiles conditions how hawks' and doves' political prospects influence crisis initiation. I find support for these claims between 1919 and 2001 using a recently developed measure of leaders' willingness to use military force. Hawks and doves face similar risks of removal when a crisis is unlikely, but doves' political prospects worsen as a crisis becomes more likely while hawks' do not. Doves are less likely to initiate a crisis as their chances of losing office increase, but hawks' political security does not significantly influence crisis initiation. My findings have important implications for our understanding of how political leaders, domestic politics, and interstate conflict are related to one another.

Author

• Jeff Carter, Appalachian State University