Democracy´s Resilience and Stagnation: The Role of Opposition Parties

Session Submission Type: In-Person Full Paper Panel

Session Description

Africa´s democratic trajectories are intrinsically linked to the strength and strategies of political parties. 30 years after the continent´s wave of transitions to multi-party electoral politics, democratization remains inconsistent and contentious. Yet, how country trajectories of democratic resilience, stagnation or backsliding are linked to historically rooted party system dynamics and socio-political characteristics such as ethnic heterogeneity is poorly understood. This panel focusses on incumbents and opposition party dynamics in the Africa region since the regime transitions of the early 1990s. The papers explore opposition party dynamics and confront established assumptions about the democratic challenges of ethno-regional parties. Addressing the role and capacity of opposition parties in autocratic regimes, the papers analyze the effect of individual party institutionalization on the opposition’s capacity to build coalitions and enter into elite bargains with incumbents. Finally the panel addresses how democratic backsliding may be a consequence of the weakening of inclusive bargains between opposition parties and a new political elite class centralizing power.
The papers share a qualitative, inductive and comparative approach and are all based on extensive original data. The panel unites junior and senior scholars, located in Africa, Europe and the US. Dulani et al. analyze the historical roots and survival of parties, and compare the fates of the Malawi Congress Party (Malawi) and the United National Independence Party (Zambia), the party in power during the long spell of single party rule. To explain how MCP survived whereas UNIP went into oblivion following the transition to multi-party politics, the authors focus on leadership renewal, decisions to boycott elections, and the encroachment into traditional regional strongholds. Similarly addressing the ethno-regional basis of opposition parties, Rakner and van de Walle´s paper show that most of the African opposition parties that command at least 30% of the vote in multiple electoral cycles rely on their ability to mobilize co-ethnics. Challenging key assumptions about party institutionalization and ethnic-based mobilization patterns, the paper asks under what circumstances ethno-regional parties contribute to long term democratization or democratic backsliding. Bertrand and Mutyaba´s paper seek to disentangle the concepts of party institutionalization and party strength in an authoritarian setting. Comparing two main opposition parties in Uganda – the Forum for Democratic Change (FDC) and the Democratic Party (DP) – the analysis shows that party institutionalization affects the parties´ capacity to challenge the incumbent through coalition- building and the establishment of elite bargains. Elite bargains between opposition and incumbents is also the focus of Riedl´s analysis of two most-different cases – South Africa and Benin – with highly diverse challenges, extremely varied party systems, and yet strikingly similar pathways to democratization. Riedl argues that the democratic bargains were maintained through self-interested and weakened incumbents. Now, as the imperative for inclusive bargains and stability is weakened, democratic backsliding is a consequence of a new political elite class centralizing power in the wake of this reordering.

Sub Unit

• Division 53: African Politics

Cosponsor

• Division 44: Democracy and Autocracy

Individual Presentations

• The Paradox of Institutionalized Ethno-Regional Opposition Parties - Nicolas van de Walle, Cornell University; Lise Rakner, University of Bergen

• Opposition Party institutionalization in Uganda - Eloïse Bertrand, University of Portsmouth; Michael Mutyaba, SOAS University of London

• Democratic Success and Challenges: Political Parties in Benin and South Africa - Rachel Beatty Riedl, Cornell University

Chair

• Sebastian Elischer University of Florida

Discussant

• Noah Nathan University of Michigan