Lessons Learned From the 2020 US Presidential Election Forecasts

Session Submission Type: Virtual Roundtable

Session Description

The 2020 election presented many challenges for election prediction including the unique character of the Trump presidency, heightened political polarization, the pandemic’s human and economic toll, and increased opportunities for voters to vote early. How well did the 2020 Presidential election forecasts perform and what lessons did we learn about forecasting with public opinion polls, voter expectations, structural models and political markets?

Sub Unit

• Related Groups / Political Forecasting Group

Chair

• Mary Stegmaier University of Missouri

Presenters

• Ruth Dassonneville Universite de Montreal

• Charles P. Tien CUNY, Hunter College & The Graduate Center

• Andreas Erwin Murr University of Warwick

• Veronique Jerome University of Paris XI-Sud Orsay

• Thomas Rietz