Political Forecasting Methodology

Session Submission Type: Virtual Featured Paper Panel: 30-minute Paper Presentations

Session Description

Three papers are presented that each feature empirical analyses whose findings provide insight into how to make the best forecasts. The following topics are discussed.

-How to best deal with outliers
-Whether panel or more aggregated time-series models are best
-Whether theoretically driven “single-equation” forecasting models are better than “ensemble” and citizen forecasts.

Sub Unit

• Related Groups / Political Forecasting Group

Individual Presentations

• How to Handle Outliers and Influential Cases - Michael S. Lewis-Beck, University of Iowa; Charles P. Tien, CUNY, Hunter College & The Graduate Center

• Assessing Panel vs. Time-Series Designs in U.S. Elections - Carl E. Klarner, Klarnerpolitics

• British Election Forecasting and the Future of Single-Equation Modeling - Ross E. Burkhart

Chair

• Carl E. Klarner Klarnerpolitics

Discussant

• Peter Enns Cornell University