Testing the Trip Wire

• In Event: Alliances and War: Cooperation, Complication, and Conflict Among Allies

Abstract

Do U.S. casualties in trip-wire forces increase public support for foreign military intervention? Scholars and policymakers believe that placing a small force in harm's way to ensure that an attacker will kill U.S. soldiers, public outrage will ensure mass support for intervention. Despite the importance of this trip wire logic in the theory and practice of deterrence, especially for generating credible commitments in military alliances, there is little evidence whether it works as expected. Using a survey experiment, we assess whether U.S. casualties increase support for foreign intervention. We also examine potential limitations of the trip wire effect and consider how reputation, honor, revenge, nationalism and national interests connect U.S. casualties and support for intervention.

Authors

• Joshua Alley, University of Virginia

• Todd S. Sechser, University of Virginia