Dynamics of Protestors: The Effects of Voting Patterns and the Electoral Cycle

• In Event: Protests and Voting

Abstract

 This paper aims to analyze how the traits of candlelight protest participants have changed from 2004 to 2017 in South Korea. While most studies identify the traits of the candlelight protestors based on a single survey, this paper examines the change of protest participants using a multi-level analysis. This study argues that a voter type and a distance from the next election have affected the person to participate in candlelight protests. To be specific, a swing voter is less likely to participate in a candlelight protest when the next election is scheduled too soon or too far. A liberal core voter with a high degree of motivation is more likely to take part in a candlelight protest when the distance from the next election is close, while a conservative core voter with a low degree of motivation is not affected by the distance from the next election. This study contributes on both sub-fields, voting behaviors and contentious politics, by combining an individuals’ voting patterns with political opportunity structures. Survey data (2004, 2010, 2017) conducted by the Korean Political Science Association (KPSA) and the Korean Social Science Data Center (KSSDC) provide empirical support for the arguments.

Author

• Hyunjin Cha, Korea University