Too Fast Too Furious: The Challenges of Hypersonic Missile for Crisis Bargaining

• In Event: 21st Century Deterrence

Abstract

How do emerging technologies impact bargaining, deterrence, and conflict dynamics? In this piece, we explore two inherent characteristics of hypersonic boost-glide vehicles (HGV) that can complicate the core tenets of crisis bargaining: a compressed time for decision-making and the uncertainties of dual-use payloads. While the widespread use, and thus data, on hypersonic technology is still rare and often classified, we pro- pose a novel research design that allows us to investigate these mechanisms and the implications of this emerging technology. In this study, we examine the India-Pakistan crisis from 1947-1973 to trace the mechanisms from our logic as a form of comparative case analysis. We then conduct an ‘out of sample’ test to observe how the inclusion of hypersonic technology would impact this and similar dispute dyads (i.e., U.S.-China and U.S.-Russia) in the future. We conclude with a range of implications and recommendations for policymakers as the incorporation of hypersonic technologies and other emerging dual-use technologies among major powers becomes increasingly appealing.

Authors

• Paige Price Cone, School of Advanced Air and Space Studies

• Rupal Mehta, University of Nebraska-Lincoln