Captain Mayor? Military Politicization in Brazilian Municipal Elections

• In Event: Crime, Policing and Militarization Strategies

Abstract

Civilian control of the armed forces and the absence of military politicization are fundamental democratic norms. In recent years, some democratically elected leaders have consciously subverted these norms. As a result of his appointment of military men to vice president and cabinet positions (among other efforts to politicize the institution), Brazilian president, Jair Bolsonaro, has earned a reputation for belonging to this controversial group. Although the majority of the Brazilian public has condemned Bolsonaro’s military appointments to high-ranking national political positions, it is unclear how far these perceptions extend. In this paper, we seek to understand whether national-level politicization of the military extends to influence local politics, both in terms of the strategies that candidates use to contest local elections and public support for candidates expressing military affiliations. To do this, we empirically assess candidate campaigns and electoral results from Brazil’s 2016 and 2020 municipal elections, leveraging the intervening military politicization in national politics as a quasi-, albeit imperfect, natural experiment. Our preliminary analyses suggest that national politicization has notably increased intentional expressions of military affiliation among Brazilian mayoral candidates. To the extent that national politicization of Brazil’s most trusted institution resonates with and trickles down to influence personal politics at the local level, the country’s future democratic prospects are weakened.

Authors

• Kelly Senters Piazza, United States Air Force Academy

• Kylie Stronko, United States Air Force Academy

• Jamie M Landy