Does Market Exposure Influence Voting? Evidence from a Natural Experiment

• In Event: Empirical Origins of Political Ideas

Abstract

The study utilizes a natural experiment to study whether market exposure influences voting. A small, isolated German territory was coincidentally assigned to self-governance due to a cartographical error shortly after World War I. The “free state” of bottleneck ensured its survival through illicit market exchanges. Using randomization inference, the study shows that market exposure had durable voting effects that lasted for over four decades. The illicit market experience did not increase the vote share of pro-market parties. Rather residents of the bottleneck were up to 40 percentage points more likely to support the Center Party of the popular spokesperson of the bottleneck. The support transcended to the Christian Democrats up until 1965, as the politician was one of the party’s local founders after World War II. The findings suggest that historical legacies in voting behavior may be transmitted by non-programmatic personal linkages, particularly if they are reinforced by subsequent events.

Author

• Kai Jäger, King's College London