Turnout and Local Representation in North Carolina

• In Event: Who Gets to Contest Local Elections?: Gatekeepers and Representation

Abstract

Recent work argues that Black Americans are systematically underrepresented, both descriptively and ideologically, in local town councils. We argue that seatshare comparisons may not provide the best counterfactual for measuring representation, and so propose a new measure which accounts for expected seat distributions. Applying this measure to population data on North Carolina’s county commissions and municipal councils helps separate out the effects of mechanical and structural causes of representation gaps. In addition, we generate counterfactuals for observed levels of ideological congruence representation, demonstrating how current levels of misrepresentation are influenced by observed demographics and the distribution of ideologically preferences. Finally, and leveraging the same Monte Carlo approach, we show how changing turnout patterns (potentially affected by institutional interventions) could mitigate disparities in representation.

Authors

• Jason Douglas Todd, Duke Kunshan University

• Arvind Ram Krishnamurthy, Duke University

• Curtis Bram, Duke University