How State Variations in Postal and Election Administration Shape Mail Voting

• In Event: Election Administration: Impact of Voting Rules in the States

Abstract

Absentee and mail voting have become particularly important ways of ballot casting during the Coronavirus pandemic and the 2020 presidential election. Several studies (Burden et al. 2014, 2017; Ritter and Tolbert 2021) have established that the impact of absentee and mail voting is shaped by the presence of other election laws and broader features of a state’s election administration. Additionally, the accessible voting theoretical framework predicts that no-excuse absentee and mail voting will have more positive impacts on turnout in states with more accessible election administration systems. Although recent research has established that this is indeed the case (Ritter and Tolbert 2021), no study has attempted to theoretically or methodologically incorporate intra and inter-state variations in U.S. Postal System administration performance into assessments of mail voting’s impact on voter turnout and turnout equality. Additionally, more study is needed to address whether and to what degree accessible versus restrictive features of a state’s election administration impacts these outcomes. In this study, intra- and inter-state variations in postal system administration performance are incorporated into the accessible voting theoretical framework, with expectations that state linked U.S. mailing districts and zip codes with on average faster delivery times for first-class mail will have individuals who are more likely to vote by mail, to have higher turnout levels attributable to mail voting, and have narrower turnout differences linked to mail voting between non-Hispanic whites and racial minorities as well as higher and lower socio-economic class citizens. In addition, this study evaluates whether state cure laws, voter identification laws, notary or witness signature requirements, and timeline regulations governing when such ballots can be processed or counted shapes these mail voting outcomes. These hypotheses are evaluated using multilevel modeling along with 2008 to 2020 Current Population Survey as well as 2008 to 2020 Oregon state voter file data. Ultimately, this study demonstrates that states with on average more accessible postal as well as election administrations are more likely to have higher voter turnout levels as well as lower levels of voting inequality linked to mail voting.

Author

• Michael James Ritter, Washington State University