Posing Problems without Shacking Up: Sino-Russian Relations & Regional Security?

• In Event: Chinese Politics Mini-Conference: China on the Global Stage: Policies and Reactions

Abstract

Is China aligning with Russia in the international system? The most recent scholarship does not address China's balancing strategy because it explains secondary states' response to China's rise. Additionally, most attempts to measure alignment use broad metrics based on the US experience with its junior military partners, which may not apply to great power alignment. This paper presents a theoretically and empirically informed strategy for measuring alignment degree and scope, using more appropriate metrics for great powers. I then evaluate the China-Russia relationship within this framework. I argue that their alignment is narrow in scope but deep, though the latter is reflected more in terms of mutual enhancement military capabilities than direct coordination of security policies. While the China and Russia relationship is unlikely to become a formal mutual defense alliance, China is pursuing a limited subset of alignment activities with Russia that would impact US military operations in critical contingencies and thus should not be discounted. This research has implications for Chinese foreign policy, regional security, alliance politics, and balancing theory.

Author

• Oriana Skylar Mastro, Stanford University