British Election Forecasting and the Future of Single-Equation Modeling

• In Event: Political Forecasting Methodology

Abstract

I will trace the evolution of single-equation forecasting in British elections. These forecasters estimate a single election forecast well before the election date by estimating an equation with independent variables that theoretically connect to voting behavior, for instance government approval and national economic performance. I will then compare the single-equation modeling performance to that of other forecasting techniques such as citizen forecasting and polling aggregative models. I will focus on potential methodological innovations based upon past performance.

Author

• Ross E. Burkhart