Protest and Polarization: How Anti-Movements Affect Voters' Preference?

• In Event: Protests and Voting

Abstract

Political protests increasingly play an essential role in shaping politics in democracies. How does the rise of a political protest, which is targeted at a specific leader, affect voters’ perception? Particularly, does the political movement make citizens dislike and distrust the other party? Drawing on psychological mechanisms, I consider how exposure to a significant political protest activates and reinforces pre-existing partisan identity and ultimately leads to preference polarization. To test this argument, I examine the impact of the Ele Não (Not Him) movement proceeding to the 2018 Brazilian presidential election. I use the 2018 Brazilian survey data to examine whether temporal exposure to the protests is associated with voting behavior at the subsequent election by utilizing the difference-in-difference identification strategy. My findings suggest that the political protest may enhance political support among voters who utilized mobilization within the political allies. On the other hand, voters outside of political allies increasingly have negative assessments against the candidate who allies with the protest. These public opinion effects may result in a high level of mass polarization. The findings have implications for understanding the impact of political demonstrations on voting behavior and the process of polarization in the context of widespread protests in democracies.

Author

• Yuko Sato, V-Dem Institute