Prisoners of Their Premises

• In Event: Questions of Executive Power: Foundations, Assumptions, and Rhetoric

Abstract

The specter of catastrophe haunts the history of public policy. Capable, dedicated, and patriotic men and women frequently make disastrous decisions that squander the lives, fortunes, and goodwill of their fellow citizens. First, I offer a theoretical foundation for the impact of premises and surmise that they will be most influential in identifying problems, arguing they often blind policymakers to the existence of problems. Then I examine the Korean War as a best test case of the power of premises. The relevant decision makers were giants in national security, yet they suffered two strategic surprises within six months. I consider alternative explanations for their decision-making failures and conclude that the core reason was their faulty premises.

Author

• George C. Edwards, Texas A&M University