Asymmetrical Effects: Subnational Authoritarian Regime Stability

• In Event: Electoral Politics in Putin’s Russia

Abstract

How do changes in subnational politics impact authoritarian regime stability? Previous research has examined the spatial heterogeneity of support for authoritarian regimes and has argued that regime stability depends, at least in part, on the mobilization of support in key subnational strongholds. However, existing scholarship has not examined the electoral ramifications of significant changes in the relationship between the center and those constituencies. We examine this question with fine-grained electoral and census data from one of the world’s most prominent authoritarian regimes--the Russian Federation--to evaluate the potentially far-reaching consequences of the Putin regime’s recent political campaign against its former domestic allies. We compare patterns of electoral support and turnout in the 2011, 2012, 2016 and 2018 national legislative and presidential elections to uncover implications for electoral politics and regime durability. Our results highlight the importance of subnational political structures in securing electoral support for the regime.

Authors

• Allison C. White, Colorado State University

• Inga A-L Saikkonen, Åbo Akademi University