The Causes of Modern Conquest

• In Event: The Changing Nature of Interstate Territorial Conflict and Its Management

Abstract

Although conquests of entire states became rare after 1945, conquests of small pieces of territory persisted. With puzzling frequency, states continue to seize -- and even fight wars over -- what are often remarkably small areas. This study investigates the causes of conquest attempts since 1945 by combining new conquest data with new geospatial data on territorial disputes. We argue that traditional explanations predicated on the value of the disputed territory - resources, strategic location, population, and ethnic composition - fail to explain modern conquest, in part because they are mismatched with the size of the seized territories. We theorize instead that the roots of modern conquest lie in careerist incentives within militaries. Military officers confront distinctive incentives to seize small pieces of territory in pursuit of promotions and in service of political aspirations. States in which militaries hold more power provide environments more conducive to these officers either seizing territory on their own initiative or successfully lobbying the government to back these operations. We find evidence in favor of this argument and some evidence supportive of domestic diversion and status dissatisfaction. Taken together, these results suggest that actors more often seize territory to be seen to have seized it rather than because they value the territory itself.

Authors

• Dan Altman, Georgia State University

• Melissa M. Lee, Princeton University