Race, Inequality and Perceptions of Economic “Winners and Losers”

• In Event: Political Psychology and Race

Abstract

Researchers disagree about how economic inequality shapes public opinion in the United States. Some think that growing inequality should result in stronger public support for government redistribution. But mounting evidence suggests that rising inequality makes Americans more opposed to redistribution, among the rich and poor alike. While it makes sense that the affluent would prefer the status quo, more research is needed to understand why disadvantaged Americans might also reject intervention to reduce inequality. Are Americans aware of the broader economic environment, their relative position in it, and do these perceptions play a role? To what extent do racial attitudes matter, especially as they relate to perceptions of the economic system’s “winners” and “losers”?

I have two, central goals for my paper: (1) explore new data to evaluate whether the relationship is either reinforcing or correcting and (2) analyze not only how inequality and beliefs about redistribution are connected but also why they are connected. Research on inequality and redistribution suggests that racial attitudes should play an important role in understanding these dynamics. To what extent do racial attitudes matter, especially as they relate to perceptions of the economic system’s “winners” and “losers”? Have these views become racialized, and if so, what are the implications for inequality and public opinion?

My research design analyzes the interplay of race, inequality and public opinion using a multi-method approach exploring two important levels of analysis. My first study analyzes multilevel data from the General Social Survey (GSS) and Census Bureau. This two-level dataset evaluates the influence of community characteristics on beliefs about government. I purchased restricted geographic information associated with GSS data from 2006-2014. With this geo-coded information, I am able to connect individual survey data with local contextual data (on things like economic inequality, mean income, and racial composition) from the U.S. Census. My research isolates the impact of income inequality using multilevel modeling software HLM 7.03, which explores how/whether people living among inequality think and behave differently from those living in a more egalitarian environment.

Consistent with researchers who find a “reinforcing” relationship between inequality and opposition to redistribution, my initial findings uncover a significant, positive relationship between the Gini index and opposition to government intervention, even when controlling for racial diversity and other important contextual and individual variables. People living among high inequality are more likely to oppose all kinds of government involvement, even attempts to reduce income differences. My analysis also explores variables that moderate the relationship between inequality and opposition. Consistent with studies that connect racial attitudes and beliefs about government policies, racial resentment intensifies the positive relationship between the Gini index and opposition to government redistribution.

My paper’s second study analyzes a tailored, original survey with an embedded experiment that analyzes race with additional control and precision. Data from approximately 1,200 respondents is being collected using Amazon Mechanical Turk (MTurk) during January of 2021. The survey includes an experiment, which uses fictitious news stories in a 2 x 2 factorial experimental design to manipulate the level of inequality as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic (high vs. low) and race of economic “losers” (white vs. black). A pretest/posttest design allows me to evaluate levels of support for government intervention both before and after exposure to the news story. My expectation is that the race of economic “losers” will matter and that support for intervention will be lowest in the high/black condition.

Issues of inequality, race, wealth and social class have been “front and center” in American politics, as we witness devastating health and economic outcomes for Black communities dealing with the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as ongoing police brutality and need for criminal justice reform. Analyzing the link between inequality and opinion helps us to understand and evaluate the potential, long-term consequences of public policies that perpetuate severe economic divisions. This research is supported by a 2020-21 APSA Centennial Center Research Grant.

Author

• Alina Oxendine, Hamline University