Climate Events and the Role of Adaptive Capacity in (Im)Mobility

• In Event: Influence of Disaster on Public Policy

Abstract

What factors shape individuals’ decisions to stay or migrate in the presence of climate change? Based on existing research, we study how the relationship between different types of climate events (e.g., storms, floods and droughts) and migration is moderated by certain individual and household characteristics pertaining to the adaptive capacity of affected individuals. Empirically, we employ survey data from five developing countries (Cambodia, Nicaragua, Peru, Uganda and Vietnam) that include both migrants and non-migrants (N= 3,689). The results based on multilevel logistic regression models caution against sweeping predictions that future climate-relate events will be accompanied by widespread migration. Rather, the findings provide indicative evidence for immobility on the part of certain groups: less-educated, poor, and older individuals are less likely to migrate, and often stay in situ even in the presence of severe short-term climate events, such as storms and floods. These findings inform the discussion on the factors that motivate individuals to migrate out of a set of possible behavioral responses to climate change. From a policy perspective, decision-makers will find it useful to develop (legislative) action based on evidence about differentiated individual-characteristic profiles.

Author

• Vally Koubi, ETH Zurich